Why was ‘Brexit’ such a surprise?

Could it be possible that a significant number of voters lied to opinion polls all along? If you admitted to voting Leave, you could expect your friends to turn on you and call you a stupid racist – an expectation justified by present events. Why risk it when the result might go their way in any case? It’s a secret ballot. Lying to pollsters was a win-win situation.

The finance markets, going with these potentially distorted polls, speculated on a Remain result, only to have the rug pulled out from underneath them during the night. For an entertaining analysis of this, watch the Max Keiser show, episode 932. Complacent in the projected result, no-one made a plan to cover the details of leaving.

No-one? Of course there are plans. The Treasury has a plan, the civil service have plans, the EU has a plan. Things that work will continue, until the politicians regroup and interfere.

Which politicians? The opposition parties are in total disarray. Refusal to abandon an open borders policy has cost them the rest of their agenda. Green Party rallying posts on Facebook are deluged with comments from their supporters denouncing their refusal to accept that Britain is overcrowded. It’s a serious situation. Exceeding the carrying capacity of your environment always ends badly for the species concerned. If anyone should be leading on this difficult issue it should be the Greens.

Instead they are talking about an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. Really? I remember the wave of adulation which swept this party into government. In the enthusiasm, one small voice stood out for me. An elder statesman wondered if they had the experience to lead, being so long in opposition.

Turns out they didn’t. Aware of the Lib Dem’s huge youth following, the Conservatives’ opening shot was raising university tuition fees. Expecting Nick Clegg to respond ‘not on your nelly, what else have you got?’ they must have fallen over backwards with surprise when he caved in.

A similar thing has just happened with the Scottish National Party. Instead of dashing off to Europe on the outrage bus, they could have murmured ‘regrettable’ and ‘considering our options’ while having secured a deal for an independent Scotland behind the scenes some time ago.  After all, the vote may represent a fear of change rather than a desire for EU membership.

Labour turns on their popular leader and shreds him, expecting this to…do what? Complete the disarray of the opposition and leave the Conservatives to set the agenda? Lose any remaining trust from their voters?

There’s change coming. It was already on its way. Look on this referendum as a defining moment if you like, but it was part of a process sweeping across the globe. A country alone can try out strategies too risky for a complex federation to embrace. You’re going to have to pay attention.

I have a plan. It’s not a quick fix but it’ll work. Get the Resilience Handbook and find out. Meanwhile, buy British. Your continuing prosperity depends on it.

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